• Cringely is a relatively smart pundit. He has a broad enough understanding of enough disciplines ((tech/programming)/(business/economics)) that's it's worth paying attention to what he says.
• It is so much easier to critique what he says than to articulate my own thoughts.

So, with no further delay, my selected thoughts on some of Cringely's predictions:

1) Microsoft's entry into the anti-virus and anti-spyware businesses will be a disaster for users. This is based on everything I know about Microsoft, having watched the company for almost 28 years. They will make a big fanfare, spend a lot of marketing dollars, but in the end, the company simply won't be able to keep up with the demands of keeping virus signatures current, which isn't the real point of this gambit, anyway. There is so much to this story and so much that I could write that I think I'll do so next week, and just move on to the next prediction.

He's probably right. MS is perfectly capable of doing this if they wanted to, but it isn't in the company DNA. There's no money or glory in ti, the updates are a constant drain that they get no glory or fanfare for putting the effort into. If it was legally possible, it would be great to force MS to do this, then they might actually expend the resources to address some of the underlying vulnerabilities that viruses and spyware take advantage of. But frankly, these help drive the upgrade cycle for windows, so why should MS do anything more than cosmetic? (Also, if they make this part of the OS, then they're both admitting lot, and setting themselves up for liability type issues for admitting that they aren't taking care of those underlying issues. That will be a lot of fun to watch.)

3) Apple will take a big risk in 2005. This could be in the form of a major acquisition. With almost $6 billion in cash, Steve Jobs hinted to a group of employees not long ago that he might want to buy something big, though I am at a loss right now for what that might be. Or Apple might decide to throw some of that cash into the box along with new computers by deliberately losing some money on each unit in order to buy market share.

We might see that as early as next week with the rumored introduction of an el-cheapo Mac without a display. The price for that box is supposed to be $499, which would give customers a box with processor, disk, memory, and OS into which you plug your current display, keyboard, and mouse. Given that this sounds a lot like AMD's new Personal Internet Communicator, which will sell for $185, there is probably plenty of profit left for Apple in a $499 price. But what if they priced it at $399 or even $349? Now make it $249, where I calculate they'd be losing $100 per unit. At $100 per unit, how many little Macs could they sell if Jobs is willing to spend $1 billion? TEN MILLION and Apple suddenly becomes the world's number one PC company. Think of it as a non-mobile iPod with computing capability. Think of the music sales it could spawn. Think of the iPod sales it would hurt (zero, because of the lack of mobility). Think of the more expensive Mac sales it would hurt (zero, because a Mac loyalist would only be interested in using this box as an EXTRA computer they would otherwise not have bought). Think of the extra application sales it would generate and especially the OS upgrade sales, which alone could pay back that $100. Think of the impact it would have on Windows sales (minus 10 million units). And if it doesn't work, Steve will still have $5 billion in cash with no measurable negative impact on the company. I think he'll do it.

This is interesting, but it won't happen. Apple will not introduce a device without a clear cut purpose, and from past experience they know how fast that those cash reserves can go. This post will be up so close to finding out what they're introducing that it won't matter, but I expect that it will be some sort of home media appliance. Initially, it will primarily be expected to be used as an iTunes server. It will have some very rudimentary TV integration functionality, that will be poo-poo-ed right now, but will serve as a toe-hold to expand on later. (A wedge that they'll use to coerce media companies to allow us to move TV shows onto it, and then probably onto iPods, Apple can do this because they're still perceived as niche, so the media companies don't feel like they're giving up the homestead when they really are, and should be giving up more if they want to survive.) It will be administered not via a monitor, but via a custom application, much like the AirPort Express is administered via the Airport Admin Utility (or the XServe admin stuff). That app may be Mac only right now, but they'll have a windows version out within a few months.

4) The Recording Industries Association of America will continue to sue customers while their business slowly dissolves. The big threat here isn't file swapping, but affiliate programs like Apple's iTunes Affiliate Program that I am sure will be shortly copied by all the online music stores. These affiliate programs turn bloggers into shills and blogs into record stores, with the result that record company's last source of power -- marketing clout -- is taken away. This will take time, but it is the beginning of the end for old-style record companies.

This is genuinely interesting, I I hope that it's right.

5) WiMax will be a huge story by summer, but widespread adoption of the wireless networking technology will take at least another two years. In the meantime, though, nobody will make money on WiFi, but it will become ubiquitous anyway, especially with the arrival of 802.11n.

The business model will be the same as that for "coffee in hotel rooms", you won't want to be the one without it. In reality, it's going to be so cheap to offer in so many places (once it's ubiquitous, the costs are well distributed by definition.)

6) VoIP will continue to shatter the telephone industry with the arrival of WiFi phones, which might finally be the killer app for hotspots. Eventually, all the backbone suppliers will figure out that VoIP is their salvation and will either start their own VoIP companies or ally with big VoIP players.

I find this interesting, because I'm a geek, and I have zero interest in VOIP. If all I cared about was cheap communication, then I would be all over it, but there are two large events that spring to my NYC based mind from the last two years, that make me just not care: 9/11 and the 2003 blackout. In the first case, the phone was useless. The lines were flooded, and I could only communicate with people via email/goats. In the second case, email/goats/my internet connection were useless. But the phones have their own power, and part of the reason I pya Verizon is to have backup power supplies where necessary. SO (as long as I had an old-fashioned phone around) I could still use that, but not the internet. (Except of course, that I was out of town for the blackout, so none of that was actually an issue for me.) I like redundancy. I don't trust one company to provide it to me.

7) The trend of repurposing Linux-based consumer electronics devices through revised firmware will expand dramatically as people realize the cost-benefit advantage, AND nerds realize that they can sell reprogrammed WRT54GS stuff all over town and over the Internet.

From a business perspective, I might stop using Linux if these practices becomes too wide-spread. Personally, it sounds like some sort of virus/worm attack waiting to happen, and as a business I wouldn't want my ass sued for my compromised Linux device being an issue.

12) There is no evidence that Sun will change its current course, which is inexorably downward. I know Jonathan Schwartz thinks I'm crazy, but so far I am more right than he is, and hear no reason coming from him why that should change.

I really wonder about Sun. They could have a lot going for them, but they fail to articulate what that might be. They're the Apple for engineers (as compared to artists), but they're really failing to take advantage of that or do anything that's not also being don in the Linux space. They need innovation, big time. Alternatively, they need a major linux compromise to occur, that makes a lot of people want to have alternative systems out there with someone they can sue behind them. So I guess, looking at my previous reponses, I should really look into be ing a lawyer in the next few years.

13) While Intel thinks its 2004 course corrections will do the job, I just don't see much in the new product roadmap to get excited about. AMD will continue to grow at Intel's expense. And keep an eye on IBM's PowerPC introductions later in the year that should really give Intel fits, especially if they are accompanied by substantial OEM agreements.

I care little about this, but I thing that AMD has never proved themselves at doing much beyond chasing Intel. I wonder how much progress they'll show if they actually catch up.

Eh. That's it. Obviously he'll get some of these right, especially once hindsight can be applied to the ones that are sufficiently vague(which is why I ignored 8-11), but I don't think he'll break 75%.